Logical Eccentricity

Do you ever get the feeling that there are forces beyond your control “pushing” you down a path in life?

In a previous post, I talked about the meaning of life and a possible reason as to why we are all here. Basically, the reason of our existence is to make decisions. The decisions in our lives that really matter and that have a huge impact on our lives are focal points. These focal points and the decisions we make at those points affect not only us, but have the potential of affecting many people around us as well; this is the reason for our existence.

But have you ever gotten the feeling that there was only one possible outcome, one possible decision that you could make at that point, given the surrounding circumstances? If you’ve ever read the Foundation series by Asimov, these focal points could almost be seen as a Seldon Crisis. Essentially, a Seldon Crisis happens when based on surrounding events and circumstances, there is only one possible, inevitable, course of action.

So, I guess what I’m trying to say here is that the some of the decisions that we make, could really be out of our control, and in the hand of someone/thing more powerful than us. So, what can we do about this? Nothing really, other than have faith in whatever we believe in that the correct decision has been mapped out for us.

But this really goes against what I had said before. If we are here to make decisions, and some of the decisions are out of our control, then why are we really here? Perhaps, the Seldon Crisis Decisions, while important, are not as crucial as other decisions that we make.

Hmm, yeah, so I guess we now have quantum computing… A quantum computer at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign solved a problem without even running a program. The researchers were able to determine an answer to an algorithm by combining quantum computation and quantum interrogation (a technique that makes use of wave-particle duality to search a region of space without actually entering that region) in an optical-based quantum computer through a process called “counterfactual computation”.

While I might not understand what they did here, I know it is amazing. If you don’t know too much about quantum physics, take a look at this Wikipedia article on Schrodinger’s Cat, it helps lay down the foundations for some of this stuff.

According to the University’s press release the experiment was set up in the following manner:

Utilizing two coupled optical interferometers, nested within a third, Kwiat’s team succeeded in counterfactually searching a four-element database using Grover’s quantum search algorithm. “By placing our photon in a quantum superposition of running and not running the search algorithm, we obtained information about the answer even when the photon did not run the search algorithm,” said graduate student Onur Hosten, lead author of the Nature paper. “We also showed theoretically how to obtain the answer without ever running the algorithm, by using a ‘chained Zeno’ effect.”

Through clever use of beam splitters and both constructive and destructive interference, the researchers can put each photon in a superposition of taking two paths. Although a photon can occupy multiple places simultaneously, it can only make an actual appearance at one location. Its presence defines its path, and that can, in a very strange way, negate the need for the search algorithm to run.

“In a sense, it is the possibility that the algorithm could run which prevents the algorithm from running,” Kwiat said. “That is at the heart of quantum interrogation schemes, and to my mind, quantum mechanics doesn’t get any more mysterious than this.”

Now, all we need to do is to wait for quantum computing to become available in personal computers.

I just finished up the second case for Professor Crocker Liu, price and earnings momentum. Through this case we looked at technical analysis, and tested the validity of using moving averages and relative strength indicator to dictate buy and sells. While I personally think that technical analysis is useless, and that the fundamentals of the company matter a lot more than what the stock price has done in the past, it was a very interesting case. I think I may use some of these technical indicators in my upcoming IAG presentation. This is not to say that I won’t do the typical DCF and maybe a multiples analysis, but I’m going to bring these indicators up at the major reason to buy.

Why am I going to do this? Two reasons. First, my presentation is very close to the end of the semester. The intrinsic value that a DCF shows will not be achieved by the end of the trading session. So, for the short term play, I’m going to talk about the technical indicators. Second reason, I strongly believe that IAG should try to educate its members; not only through the workshops but through the presentations as well. Since IAG is a DCF shop, I might as well try to teach the members something new while I’m presenting.

I like planning things out; this is not to say that I’m not spontaneous, but I like have a couple of semi-long term plans in the motion. With these plans, I usually set up milestones and set some sort of guidelines for myself; otherwise, I know I’ll never get around to finishing them. So, over the last few weeks, I’ve decided to restart, and reset some of the milestones for a couple of my plans. First off, what are these mysterious plans?

I like planning things out; this is not to say that I’m not spontaneous, but I like have a couple of semi-long term plans in the motion. With these plans, I usually set up milestones and set some sort of guidelines for myself; otherwise, I know I’ll never get around to finishing them. So, over the last few weeks, I’ve decided to restart, and reset some of the milestones for a couple of my plans. First off, what are these mysterious plans?

Plan A: Bloging. I created this site last June, and for a while I regularly posted news and commentary. Then school started, and I got swamped with work. I took time to write occasionally, but nothing on a serious basis. So, with this plan, I’m going to start blogging with more regularity. First milestone will be two posts per week. This may seem really low, but this is something to make sure I get back into the habit of blogging. Over the next several months, I’ll increase my rate, not positive about future milestones because I don’t want to force myself to blog everyday if it is a meaningless post. I want it to have some substance to it.

Plan B: GMAT. Over winter break I decided that I should purse two “end game” scenarios for when I graduate. One, get a job right out of undergrad for two to three years at an investment bank or something along those lines and then get an MBA after that. The other scenario is to go get an MBA straight out of undergrad without working before. To this end, I’ve got to take the GMATs this summer, and as a result I need to start studying for them. The reasoning behind getting an MBA right away is two fold. First, MBA hires get a whole lot more than undergrad hires. And two, B-schools are increasingly accepting applicants straight from undergrad. So, the milestone for this plan is to spend Fridays studying for the GMAT. Since my only obligation on Friday’s is IAG at 6, I can spend the whole day working on that.

Plan C: Bloomberg Certification Program. Stern has a Bloomberg terminal that only a handful of students use. But it’s sitting there all the time, and we have free access to it, along with the ability to create our log in for it. So, sometime during the fall semester, I created a log in for with the idea that I would get certified on it. I started the program, finished the first test, and gave up. Recently, I realized that it would look great on my resume to say that I was Bloomberg Certified. So, I’ve started working on it again. So far, I’m still on the Getting Started section of it, but I’m almost done with it. My milestones for this plan are not really set yet, I’m thinking of doing at least two sessions per week, probably on Tuesdays and Thursdays after my classes are done at 3:15.

So, those are Plans A, B and C, and I have to hold myself to them.